AI and Jobs: Why a Contingency Plan Isn't Enough

The UK government is waking up to AI's impact on jobs, but for businesses, a reactive plan for mass redundancy misses the point: continuous transition is the…

The government has acknowledged the elephant in the room: the 'unprecedented impact' of artificial intelligence on the UK workforce. But focusing on a single, future crisis point misunderstands the change that is already underway.

Speaking at the Labour Party conference, the UK’s AI minister Kanishka Narayan called for a national contingency plan for the worst-case scenarios of AI-driven job displacement. He warned that if the technology is “going to hit us in a big way, you are going to want to be as ahead of the curve as possible.” This follows analysis from the IPPR think tank suggesting that in a worst-case scenario, around eight million UK jobs could be negatively affected.

The IPPR’s Carsten Jung highlighted that AI has rapidly evolved from automating menial work to performing “high-level reasoning.” While current estimates suggest 11% of UK jobs are highly exposed to replacement, Jung argues that the arrival of more advanced, 'agentic' AI could extend the impact to as much as 60% of tasks across the economy. The think tank is now working on what it describes as a “pandemic preparedness” report to model the disruption and potential policy responses, from worker retraining to tax incentives that favour human employment.

Crucially, Narayan also noted that the true impact may already be underestimated. He pointed to the 'undocumented, bottom-up use of AI' by workers and his own conversations with tech firms that are already hiring less as a result of automation. This suggests the transformation is not a future event to be prepared for, but a subtle and continuous process that has already begun.

Beyond the worst-case scenario

While headlines focus on a single, cataclysmic wave of job losses, the reality for HR and business leaders is far more nuanced. The 'pandemic preparedness' analogy is misleading. A pandemic is a discrete crisis with a beginning and an end; the integration of AI is a permanent, ever-evolving shift in the means of production. It’s a rolling series of role redesigns, task automations, and skill shifts. The real work isn't about bracing for one big impact, but about building the organisational muscle for constant adaptation.

Furthermore, the policy-level discussion of retraining and tax codes often overlooks the profound human element of this transition. For every role that is changed or removed, there is an individual facing uncertainty about their skills, value, and future. For every team that is restructured, there is a manager tasked with navigating difficult conversations and maintaining morale. Effective managing redundancy in this context requires more than a process; it demands a deep focus on employee support during redundancy and proactive career transition support that empowers people through change, rather than simply processing them out of the business.

The commercial case for continuous transition

For any leadership team, waiting for a government contingency plan is not a viable strategy. The immediate commercial risk is not a future jobs apocalypse, but present-day irrelevance. Companies that fail to integrate AI and adapt their workforce will be outmanoeuvred by more agile competitors who can deploy human talent more strategically. This demands a move away from reactive outplacement services for employers and towards integrated workforce transition services as a core business function.

A proactive approach starts with auditing tasks, not just jobs. By understanding which specific activities can be automated, organisations can redesign roles to augment human capability, freeing people for higher-value work that AI cannot do: strategy, complex problem-solving, and relationship-building. This reframes the entire budget conversation. The key question is no longer simply how much does outplacement cost, but what the ongoing investment in reskilling, internal mobility, and quality career transition delivers in terms of agility and competitive advantage. It is this strategic mindset that defines the difference between simply cutting costs and building a future-proof organisation.

The question is no longer 'how much does outplacement cost?' but 'what is the ROI of building a resilient, adaptable workforce?'

This creates a powerful opportunity. Businesses that handle this continuous evolution with care and strategy will not only become more efficient but also more attractive places to work. They will build a powerful employer brand based on a reputation for responsible stewardship, helping their people navigate the reality that The 50-Year Career Is Here. Are You Ready? This requires sophisticated restructure support that seamlessly connects internal redeployment opportunities with best-in-class support for those who do leave.

Navigating the new reality

This shift from managing discrete redundancy events to navigating a state of perpetual workforce evolution is the new reality for HR leaders. It demands a partner that understands both the strategic imperative for the business and the deeply human journey of the individual. This is the work ImaginativeHR does with organisations every day.

We provide the career transition services and organisational expertise that help businesses manage complex change, whether it involves a single executive or a large scale outplacement programme. Our blend of expert one-to-one coaching and powerful technology ensures that whether an employee’s next step is internal or external, they are supported to move forward with confidence, protecting both individual wellbeing and your employer brand.